Weekly report · last 7 days
Kalshi's biggest mispricings this week
Every game where Kalshi sold a team for at least 2 points less than the sportsbook's fair odds, after Kalshi's fee, and how it turned out. Pro members got each one as an alert the moment it appeared.
This week in sports
This week in sports
Last week brought 16 price gaps of 2+ points on Kalshi. Graded gaps went 11–4, returning $376 on $100 bets after fees. Pick of the Day finished 5–1 for $186 profit. The standout: every capper pick across all sports went 297–228, generating $1,914 at $100 per bet. Tennis had the biggest gaps. Thiago Agustin Tirante beat Zachary Svajda with an 18.9-point gap at 29¢. Diana Shnaider beat Alexandra Eala with a 6.0-point gap at 51¢. Daniel Altmaier lost to Alex Molcan despite a 13.1-point gap at 30¢.
The week's signal: capper picks across the board kept hitting. That 297–228 record over a large sample suggests the crowd of cappers is seeing something the market isn't. Tennis had the most dramatic price gaps, with Tirante and Shnaider's wins showing how far Kalshi can drift from fair odds on less-watched matches.
This week watch soccer trends that have held for a decade. VfB Stuttgart's road Over is 34–14 over 10 seasons and 12–3 lately; they play Galatasaray on Nov 3. Borussia Dortmund as home favorites is 41–5 over 10 seasons and 14–1 recently; they face Real Betis on Nov 4 and SV Elversberg on Nov 7. In college basketball, SJSU at home Over is 40–19 over 10 seasons and 11–4 lately; they host UTSA on Nov 2. In the NBA, Charlotte's home Under is 103–66 over 10 seasons and 29–17 recently; they play Detroit on Nov 2 and Boston on Nov 6.
Written from our graded results and this week's trends. History, not predictions. 21+.
“Expected wins” is what the sportsbook's fair odds predicted. Small samples swing a lot; the edge shows up over hundreds of bets, not one week.
| Date | Team | Kalshi | Fair | Gap | Result | $100 |
|---|
| 11/02 | College BasketballApp State Mountaineers @ Merrimack Warriors | 40¢ | 61% | +19.4 | Lost | −$104 |
| 10/31 | ATP TennisThiago Agustin Tirante vs Zachary Svajda | 29¢ | 49% | +18.9 | Won | +$240 |
| 10/31 | ATP TennisDaniel Altmaier vs Alex Molcan | 30¢ | 45% | +13.1 | Lost | −$105 |
| 11/03 | College BasketballArkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions @ Arkansas Razorbacks | 1¢ | 7% | +6.3 | Lost | −$107 |
| 10/29 | WTA TennisDiana Shnaider vs Alexandra Eala | 51¢ | 59% | +6.0 | Won | +$93 |
| 10/31 | BoxingJaime Munguia vs Nikita Zon | 85¢ | 92% | +5.8 | Won | +$17 |
| 11/02 | College BasketballRadford Highlanders @ San Francisco Dons | 11¢ | 17% | +5.1 | Lost | −$106 |
| 11/04 | Champions LeagueClub Brugge @ PSV Eindhoven | 29¢ | 34% | +4.0 | Won | +$240 |
| 10/28 | NBAIndiana Pacers vs Philadelphia 76ers | 29¢ | 34% | +3.4 | Lost | −$105 |
| 10/31 | BoxingRafael Espinoza vs Ricardo Blandon | 92¢ | 96% | +3.4 | Won | +$8 |
| 11/01 | ATP TennisArthur Gea vs Jan-Lennard Struff | 53¢ | 58% | +3.0 | Lost | −$103 |
| 10/31 | ATP TennisSebastian Baez vs Damir Dzumhur | 39¢ | 43% | +2.8 | Won | +$152 |
| 11/04 | College BasketballLoyola Marymount Lions vs Queens University Royals | 74¢ | 78% | +2.6 | Pending | — |
| 11/02 | NBAAtlanta Hawks @ Indiana Pacers | 76¢ | 80% | +2.4 | Won | +$30 |
| 11/03 | College BasketballSouth Carolina Gamecocks vs Stetson Hatters | 95¢ | 98% | +2.4 | Won | +$5 |
| 11/02 | College BasketballLong Island University Sharks @ Florida Atlantic Owls | 13¢ | 16% | +2.4 | Lost | −$106 |
| 11/02 | College BasketballSan Francisco Dons vs Radford Highlanders | 85¢ | 88% | +2.3 | Won | +$17 |
| 10/28 | College FootballMiddle Tennessee Blue Raiders vs Kennesaw State Owls | 52¢ | 56% | +2.3 | Lost | −$103 |
| 11/03 | College BasketballBoston College Eagles vs Wagner Seahawks | 95¢ | 98% | +2.3 | Won | +$5 |
| 10/31 | NBAHouston Rockets vs Oklahoma City Thunder | 57¢ | 61% | +2.3 | Won | +$72 |
| 11/02 | College BasketballOregon Ducks vs Montana Grizzlies | 94¢ | 97% | +2.3 | Won | +$6 |
| 11/03 | College BasketballNorth Florida Ospreys @ California Baptist Lancers | 15¢ | 18% | +2.2 | Won | +$561 |
| 11/04 | College BasketballSaint Joseph's Hawks vs Longwood Lancers | 82¢ | 85% | +2.1 | Won | +$21 |
| 10/28 | NHLColorado Avalanche vs New Jersey Devils | 57¢ | 61% | +2.1 | Won | +$72 |
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Fair odds are DraftKings moneylines with the sportsbook's cut removed. Past results don't guarantee future ones. Research and entertainment only, not betting or financial advice. 21+. 1-800-GAMBLER.