SpotAngle™
Results · graded in public

Every gap. Every pick. Losses included.

Each time Kalshi sold a team at least 1.5 points below the sportsbooks' fair price, we logged it with the price at that moment, then graded it after the game. Profit assumes $100 on every one at that price, Kalshi's fee included. Tracking since October 21, 2026.

Early days. With 62 graded gaps so far, luck still swings these numbers a lot. The fairest early check is the last line below: did teams win about as often as the fair price said they would? Results firm up after a few hundred bets.
Beat the close
55%
of our gaps were bought cheaper than Kalshi's closing price (62 graded)

This is the number professional bettors judge by. If the price you buy at keeps ending up below the price right before the game (the “close”), the market moved your way: you got the better number. It shows real edge much sooner than wins and losses, which take hundreds of bets to settle. Over 50% means we're beating the market.

Leading indicators so far

All signals ↓
Gap on another sportsbook's line
+84.9%7–1 · +$679
8 bets, last 60 days
Gap + crowd on the other side
+73.4%10–3 · +$954
13 bets, last 60 days
Stacked: gap + smart money
+49.7%6–0 · +$298
6 bets, last 60 days

Ranked by return per $100 among signals with at least 5 graded bets. With samples this small, a leader can change week to week; we show it because we're tracking it, not because it's proven.

Gaps graded
62
65 logged · see each one ↓
Record
40–22
65% won
$100 on every gap
+$1569
25.3% return
Wins vs prediction
40 vs 38.5
Kalshi's price implied 35.8

“Wins vs prediction”: actual wins, against how many the sportsbooks' fair odds expected and how many Kalshi's price implied. If our gaps are real, actual wins land closer to the fair-odds number than to Kalshi's.

Is the fair price accurate?

Every graded gap, grouped by the chance our fair price gave the team. If the fair price is right, those teams win about that often and the green dots sit on the dashed line. The blue squares are the same teams at Kalshi's price: the further they sit from the line, the more Kalshi had it wrong.

Our fair price (Pinnacle when posted)Kalshi's pricePerfect prediction
0%0%25%25%50%50%75%75%100%100%Predicted chance to winActually wonKalshi priced these at 15% on average; they won 27% (11 bets)Our fair price said 18%; they won 27% (11 bets)Kalshi priced these at 30% on average; they won 33% (6 bets)Our fair price said 35%; they won 33% (6 bets)Kalshi priced these at 36% on average; they won 60% (5 bets)Our fair price said 45%; they won 60% (5 bets)Kalshi priced these at 52% on average; they won 50% (4 bets)Our fair price said 57%; they won 50% (4 bets)Kalshi priced these at 57% on average; they won 80% (10 bets)Our fair price said 63%; they won 80% (10 bets)Kalshi priced these at 88% on average; they won 85% (26 bets)Our fair price said 91%; they won 85% (26 bets)

So far our fair price has been closer to what happened than Kalshi's price on these 62 bets. That's the whole edge: when the two disagree, the fair price has been the one to trust.

Fair price saidKalshi saidWonBets
18%15%27%11
35%30%33%6
45%36%60%5
57%52%50%4
63%57%80%10
91%88%85%26

Average miss (Brier score, lower is better): fair price 0.173 · Kalshi 0.176. Bands with fewer than 3 bets are in the table but not the chart.

When gaps show up

The hours (Eastern) when each sport's gaps were at their biggest. Check the board, or keep alerts on, in the green window.

College Basketball
26 gaps

Most open 8 AM–11 AM ET (31% of them).

8 AMnoon4 PM8 PMmidnight
NBA
15 gaps

Most open 8 AM–11 AM ET (27% of them).

8 AMnoon4 PM8 PMmidnight
ATP Tennis
8 gaps

Most open 11 AM–2 PM ET (38% of them).

8 AMnoon4 PM8 PMmidnight
WTA Tennis
5 gaps

Most open 9 PM–12 AM ET (20% of them).

8 AMnoon4 PM8 PMmidnight

By gap size

By sport

College Basketball16–8−$132
NBA7–7−$307
ATP Tennis5–3+$314
WTA Tennis3–2+$636
NHL4–0+$276
Boxing2–1−$76
College Football1–1−$33
Champions League1–0+$223
Bundesliga1–0+$669

Pick of the Day

Record
9–6
$100 a pick
+$583
Traps right
9/15
the overpriced team lost
Safest Favorite
12–3
−$123 at $100 a pick
If you bought every trap
6–9
−$49 at $100 a pick

Every published pick counts, including days with no real edge. We show what buying the traps would have done too, so you can judge them yourself.

Does following the signals work?

Every whale trade, sharp buy and capper pick from the last 60 days, graded as if you'd bet $100 on the same team at the same price. One bet per team per game. Kalshi fees included. Losses included.

If you followed…BetsRecord$100 a betReturnBeat the close
Every price gap (1.5+ pts)
Kalshi cheaper than the sportsbooks' fair price, at the price when we spotted it
6240–22+$1,569+25.3%55%
of 62
Stacked: gap + smart money
A price gap on a team that 2+ top traders or a Kalshi whale also backed
66–0+$298+49.7%67%
of 6
Gap + steam move
Pinnacle moved toward the team and Kalshi lagged, at the price when we saw it
20–2−$200−100.0%0%
of 2
Gap + tired opponent
The other team played yesterday (back-to-back), this one didn't
65–1+$92+15.3%67%
of 6
Gap + crowd on the other side
Kalshi bettors pushed the other team up 3¢+ while the sharp line didn't move
1310–3+$954+73.4%38%
of 13
Gap on a Pinnacle line
The fair price came from Pinnacle, the sharpest sportsbook
21–1−$92−46.0%50%
of 2
Gap on another sportsbook's line
Pinnacle hadn't posted, so the fair price came from DraftKings or another book
87–1+$679+84.9%50%
of 8
Gap + reverse line move
Most Kalshi money was on the other team, but the sportsbook line moved toward this one
43–1−$73−18.3%50%
of 4
Gap + sportsbooks agree
5+ sportsbooks within 2 points of each other on the fair price
65–1−$62−10.3%50%
of 6
Gap + buyers stacked
70%+ of the money waiting near the price on Kalshi's order book was buying this team
10–1−$100−100.0%0%
of 1
Spot Score 70+ (Strong)
Gaps scoring 70 or more when we first saw them, at that price
127–5+$22+1.8%58%
of 12
Spot Score 50–69 (Good)
Gaps scoring 50 to 69 when we first saw them, at that price
2215–7+$92+4.2%23%
of 22
Spot Score under 50 (Lean)
Gaps scoring under 50 when we first saw them, at that price
3526–9+$461+13.2%57%
of 35
Kalshi whale trades ($2,500+)
Back the team the first big trade backed, at its price
8048–32+$283+3.5%29%
of 80
Big whales ($10K+)
Same, only single trades of $10,000 or more
2714–13−$300−11.1%30%
of 27
Sharp buys
Back the team a top Polymarket sports trader bought, at their price
10660–46−$49−0.5%70%
of 106
3+ sharps agree
Only when three different top traders bought the same team
94–5−$150−16.7%56%
of 9
Player props, same line as the book
Kalshi's number matches the sportsbook's line, so the fair price is the book's own (2+ pt gaps, price when first seen)
8235–47−$1,161−14.2%—
Every capper pick
All picks posted on Spot Angle, at the price when posted
985534–446–5+$643+0.7%42%
of 699

Beat the close is the best early sign of a real edge: if a signal keeps getting prices cheaper than Kalshi's last price before the game, it's usually early to the right side, and over hundreds of bets that shows up as profit. Above 50% is good; win-loss records take far longer to mean anything.

A signal can be worth checking even when its record is negative: it tells you where the money is, not that the price is good. Our price gaps (above) are the part that measures value.

Latest graded gaps

Every gap is logged automatically when it appears on the board (1.5+ points), even if no alert went out. Alerts only fire for Pro members, at their own minimum gap (3 points by default) and teams.

Every Pick of the Day

Each day's pick, at the Kalshi price when we published it, graded after the game. $100 a pick, fee included.

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Pro alerts you the moment a team drops below fair on any exchange. 7-day free trial.

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Gaps are logged automatically by our scanner, not chosen afterward. Past results don't guarantee future ones. Not advice. 21+.