Crypto & Commodities Edge
Kalshi sells “Bitcoin above $X at 5 PM” contracts, and the same for Ethereum, XRP, gold and silver. For the coins, the crypto options market (Deribit) already prices the chance of every outcome. We turn its prices into a win chance for each Kalshi contract, the way we use Pinnacle for sports, and flag contracts Kalshi sells for less after its fee.
Biggest gaps
Bitcoin · Thu, Nov 5, 5:00 PM ET
Kalshi ↗| Above | Options market | Kalshi Yes | Kalshi No |
|---|---|---|---|
| $81,750 | 11% | 15¢ | 86¢ |
| $81,500 | 15% | 19¢ | 82¢ |
| $81,250 | 20% | 25¢ | 76¢ |
| $81,000 | 26% | 31¢ | 70¢ |
| $80,750 | 34% | 38¢ | 63¢ |
| $80,500 | 43% | 46¢ | 55¢ |
| $80,250 | 52% | 54¢ | 47¢ |
| $80,000 | 61% | 62¢ | 39¢ |
| $79,750 | 69% | 69¢ | 32¢ |
| $79,500 | 77% | 75¢ | 26¢ |
| $79,250 | 83% | 81¢ | 20¢ |
| $79,000 | 87% | 85¢ | 16¢ |
| $78,750 | 90.8% | 89¢ | 12¢ |
Ethereum · Thu, Nov 5, 5:00 PM ET
Kalshi ↗| Above | Options market | Kalshi Yes | Kalshi No |
|---|---|---|---|
| $2,500 | 4.1% | 8¢ | 93¢ |
| $2,460 | 17% | 22¢ | 79¢ |
| $2,420 | 48% | 50¢ | 51¢ |
| $2,380 | 79% | 79¢ | 22¢ |
| $2,340 | 94.0% | 94¢ | 7¢ |
XRP · Thu, Nov 5, 5:00 PM ET
Kalshi ↗| Above | Options market | Kalshi Yes | Kalshi No |
|---|---|---|---|
| $1.36 | 3.0% | 10¢ | 99¢ |
| $1.34 | 10.0% | 14¢ | 89¢ |
| $1.32 | 26% | 33¢ | 72¢ |
| $1.30 | 59% | 62¢ | 45¢ |
| $1.28 | 84% | 86¢ | 19¢ |
| $1.26 | 95.0% | 98¢ | 6¢ |
Gold · Thu, Nov 5, 5:00 PM ET
Kalshi ↗| Above | Market's chance | Kalshi Yes | Kalshi No |
|---|---|---|---|
| $4,164 | 18% | 18¢ | 83¢ |
| $4,154 | 21% | 22¢ | 80¢ |
| $4,144 | 28% | 28¢ | 73¢ |
| $4,134 | 36% | 36¢ | 65¢ |
| $4,124 | 44% | 45¢ | 57¢ |
| $4,114 | 52% | 53¢ | 49¢ |
| $4,104 | 61% | 61¢ | 40¢ |
| $4,094 | 70% | 70¢ | 31¢ |
| $4,084 | 77% | 77¢ | 24¢ |
| $4,074 | 82% | 82¢ | 19¢ |
| $4,064 | 87% | 87¢ | 14¢ |
Silver · Thu, Nov 5, 5:00 PM ET
Kalshi ↗| Above | Market's chance | Kalshi Yes | Kalshi No |
|---|---|---|---|
| $53.75 | 13% | 14¢ | 89¢ |
| $53.50 | 19% | 19¢ | 82¢ |
| $53.25 | 26% | 26¢ | 75¢ |
| $53.00 | 34% | 35¢ | 67¢ |
| $52.75 | 44% | 45¢ | 57¢ |
| $52.50 | 54% | 55¢ | 48¢ |
| $52.25 | 64% | 64¢ | 37¢ |
| $52.00 | 71% | 71¢ | 30¢ |
| $51.75 | 79% | 79¢ | 22¢ |
| $51.50 | 86% | 87¢ | 15¢ |
| $51.25 | 90.5% | 92¢ | 11¢ |
Green: Kalshi sells it 3+ points below the options-market chance after its fee. Kalshi settles crypto on CF Benchmarks' real-time index (60-second average before the close); the options market uses Deribit's index, and they track each other closely. Gold and silver show Kalshi's own prices and the chance they imply: there's no free options feed for metals yet, so we don't flag gaps on them.
Options traders bet billions on exactly how far Bitcoin, Ethereum and XRP will move and by when. Their prices are the sharpest read on those chances, the way Pinnacle is for sports.
From each option's implied volatility we get the chance of finishing above every price at Kalshi's close time, including the “smile” (big moves cost extra), then subtract Kalshi's fee.
Not a guarantee and not advice. Prices move fast; a gap can close in seconds, and the options market can be wrong too. Beta: we only flag 3+ point gaps between 10¢ and 90¢, and this section isn't on the graded record yet.
Prices from Kalshi's and Deribit's public data. Not affiliated with Kalshi, Deribit, Bitcoin, Ethereum or Ripple. For information only, not financial advice. 21+.